UK & Ireland
White Christmas 2014 Discussion
Updated Sat. 01st Nov.
The 3rd update for the chances of a white X-mas doesn’t change the chances of seeing at least a few flakes falling on the big day. It’s based on the second update but introduces the chart. I have decided to use a chart instead as some people seem to get a little confused with the older version.
I had put the chances at a little higher than average. We are currently undergoing a weak solar max and many extremes seem to be occurring in weather patterns recently. In excess of ten inches of rain fell in parts of Scotland in 3/4 days while exceptional warm temp’s for the time of year are affecting southern areas of Britain. It has been the warmest Halloween on record there.
I look on warm southerlies this time of year as an indication that cold weather may be on the horizon further down the line. Also, the recent rain in Scotland was brought by a similar event which brought record flooding to Ireland in Nov. 2009, shortly before the big freeze engulfed the UK & Ireland for weeks and I think this should not be turned a blind eye too.
Strong blocking is occurring over the continent to the east, and the models continue to suggest attempts by blocking in the North Atlantic. Although the current blocking on the continent is not strongly in favor of cold weather for the UK & Ireland, it is interesting to see it so strongly set up. High pressure on the continent tends to build further north in Winter months.
Also, any north-westerlies that occur this Winter will be a little colder than usual – this I have explained in this recent post.
So currently, not an exceptionally strong signal of a white X-mas 2014 yet but certainly, I see the chances a little higher than the average.